What the heck — Predictions for 2010
Aren’t predictions fun to make? Everybody is doing it, so here goes mine.
1. There will be backlash from the many variations of Google Android It seems like the smartphone news has been dominated by Google Nexus One and Motorola Droid lately. It’s not surprising that Android is so hyped as a challenger to the iPhone because competitions make good blog posts and the US consumer is sick of the poor quality of AT&T network. By the end of 2010 there will probably more than 50 Android phones in the market, each with its own little variations in the OS implementation and hardware specs. Haven’t we been here before with Windows Mobile? When the hype quiets down, developers will become disenchanted when they see the challenge of maintaining multiple versions of their Android software. Customers will similarly be confused when they discover their software won’t work across different Android devices.2. Chrome OS netbook will launch to a lukewarm reception
This may look like a well-duh prediction, given the lukewarm reception to the Chrome OS demo by Google a few weeks a go, but let me explain further. Google is not like Apple when it comes to launching products and it’s not Google’s intention to make an explosion with the Chrome OS. What Google wants is for us to move to the cloud. What would be a better way to nudge us in that direction than by taking the first initiative to create a cloud-based OS? If not them to take the first initiative, then who? Certainly not Microsoft and Apple whose business is based on the desktop. Not HP, Dell or Lenovo as they have traditionally been followers to the OS makers. Google knows that we will not be ready to move to the cloud in 2010 and it doesn’t matter. It won’t matter if we are not ready in 2011 or 2012 either. What matters is that with the Chrome OS, we will get familiar with the idea of the cloud. Remember when Gmail introduced ads based on email content? We were concerned and discussed its possible ramifications heavily back then. But now, we don’t even notice ads in Gmail — or anywhere in the web pages we are seeing, for that matter. Google has succeeded in getting us comfortable with ads (Google is an advertising company after all). And with Chrome OS, Google is now taking the necessary steps to move the masses to the cloud from the desktop.
3. The “next Twitter” is Twitter — not any of the location-based social network Early adopters are fond of asking what the next Twitter is and Foursquare is often mentioned as a candidate. Geolocation is an exciting new technology and leaders like Foursquare and Gowalla deserve the mentions. But does geolocation have critical mass? Real geolocation technology uses GPS and LBS which is on a relatively small number of mobile devices so far. Because of this, many services like Foursquare bypasses location verification by allowing users to do manual check-in. This design decision makes location-based social networks practicable, but until real geolocation technology is used, so much potential will be untapped.
When Twitter reached tipping point in 2009, smartphones were pervasive enough to enable people to tweet constantly wherever they are. The technology was ready when hundreds of millions of people suddenly found out about Twitter from Oprah. Now, although more and more smartphones are equipped with GPS, we won’t have critical mass in 2010. I have high hopes for Foursquare, Gowalla and other geolocation-based services, but their best is yet to come. What’s the “next Twitter” in 2010? More of Twitter and Facebook.
4. The end of regional social networkingWe still see pockets of regional social networks in some countries: Orkut in Brazil and India, QQ in China, Mixi in Japan, Friendster in South East Asia, etc. But anybody who has read Thomas L. Friedman’s The World is Flat knows that our interaction is increasingly global. Not only is communication easier and more universal via the internet, physical travel is also cheaper with low-cost carriers. Your old neighbors have traveled far and there is no reason why you shouldn’t make new friends with people outside your old neighbourhood. Similarly on the internet, why limit yourself to a social network that is only strong in your neck of the woods? Join where the masses are at Facebook and Twitter. Paradoxically, there will always be a need for social networks focused on specific topic or content. LinkedIn is focused on business and they will continue to find a niche. Currensee is a social network for forex traders and they will also thrive.
And now for predictions closer to home:5. The iPhone will rise to be a better challenge to the Blackberry in Indonesia
And now for predictions closer to home:5. The iPhone will rise to be a better challenge to the Blackberry in Indonesia
The Indonesian mobile phone market is dominated by Blackberry. The iPhone has so far tried and failed to challenge this status quo. Sorry, I take it back. Telkomsel, as the only iPhone provider in Indonesia, did not try. They don’t need to because their line of Blackberry is doing fine and nobody else is offering iPhones. But the market is always fickle. People change phones every year and when enough Indonesians and their grandmothers carry a Blackberry (or a cheap knock-off), sooner or later the cool kids will look for something else. As 45 million people can testify, the iPhone is an irresistible force.
6. A true ecommerce payment standard will emerge in Indonesia Frankly I don’t know if this is a real prediction or just wishful thinking, but it’s due to happen soon. Indonesia has 30 million internet users — bigger than the whole population of Australia and New Zealand combined. The rising middle class has shown to be receptive to internet and technology, as shown by the massive Facebook users and Blackberry adoption. About the only thing that technology and internet have not brought to Indonesia is ecommerce. Why? Because payment security has been a problem and traditionally there is no trust between buyers and sellers (online and offline). Sellers prefer a pre-pay solution (prepaid mobile phone numbers, transactions using debit cards, etc.) which would make a cumbersome solution in the internet ecommerce world. I don’t know what the solution is for boosting Indonesian ecommerce, but I believe the market will figure out a way soon.
6. A true ecommerce payment standard will emerge in Indonesia Frankly I don’t know if this is a real prediction or just wishful thinking, but it’s due to happen soon. Indonesia has 30 million internet users — bigger than the whole population of Australia and New Zealand combined. The rising middle class has shown to be receptive to internet and technology, as shown by the massive Facebook users and Blackberry adoption. About the only thing that technology and internet have not brought to Indonesia is ecommerce. Why? Because payment security has been a problem and traditionally there is no trust between buyers and sellers (online and offline). Sellers prefer a pre-pay solution (prepaid mobile phone numbers, transactions using debit cards, etc.) which would make a cumbersome solution in the internet ecommerce world. I don’t know what the solution is for boosting Indonesian ecommerce, but I believe the market will figure out a way soon.
So what do you think? Did I miss anything?
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